Saudi Arabia's Drive for Strategic Autonomy UPSC

Transition in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy: From aggression to diplomacy:

• Historically:
  • Saudi Arabia has been known for its assertive foreign policy, aiming to extend its influence in the West Asia region and counteract its long-standing adversary, Iran.
• Current developments:
  • Saudi Arabia is currently shifting gears and adopting a more diplomatic approach towards old adversaries and new foes. It's also aiming to maintain a balance in its relationships with major powers like the United States, China, and Russia.
  • The success of this diplomatic shift could potentially stabilize the West Asian region.

Changing Tides: Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy

• Saudi Arabia's policy, historically marked by hostility towards Iran, led to several proxy conflicts throughout the region.
  • The Kingdom has engaged in proxy conflicts with Iran in Syria and Yemen and demanded Qatar to cut ties with Iran during the 2017 blockade, which ended unsuccessfully in 2021.
• Recent developments indicate a policy shift towards diplomacy, moving away from a stance of hostility.
  • Saudi Arabia has announced its intention to normalize diplomatic ties with Iran and has initiated talks with Syria and Yemen's Houthi rebels to establish a permanent ceasefire.
• The shift from aggression to diplomacy and pragmatic realignments align with Saudi Arabia's efforts to balance its relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China.

What's triggering the changes?

• Saudi Arabia's security concerns continue to be heavily influenced by Iran, indicating that their relationship has not seen a significant transformation. However, Saudi Arabia's strategy has changed from a strategic rivalry to a more tactical de-escalation and coexistence.
• This shift is a result of a combination of factors, including the failure of the Kingdom's regional strategies.
  • The threats posed by the Houthis in Yemen and the shifting priorities of the US away from the region have played a significant role.
• Saudi Arabia now faces a choice between continuing to contain Iran or reaching out to establish a new balance between the two.
  • The Kingdom viewed China's offer to mediate between the two countries as an opportunity to pursue the latter option.

Is Saudi Arabia Drifting Away from the U.S.?

• Saudi Arabia's relationship with the U.S. remains strong:
  • The U.S. has a significant military presence in the Gulf and continues to be Saudi Arabia's largest defense supplier.
  • The Kingdom is working on improving its missile and drone capabilities to balance Iran's advantages in these areas, receiving support from the United States and other countries.
  • Saudi Arabia has entered into discussions with the U.S. to normalize ties with Israel.
• Saudi Arabia is carving out its own foreign policy:
  • Saudi Arabia recognizes that the U.S. is shifting its focus away from West Asia, changing the region's post-war order. The Kingdom is trying to capitalize on this policy shift to establish its own foreign policy autonomy while maintaining ties with the U.S.
    • The CIA Chief has expressed concerns about Saudi-Iran rapprochement.
    • The U.S. has shown displeasure with Syria's reintegration into the West Asian mainstream.
  • Saudi Arabia has also built stronger relationships with Russia and China and is participating in large infrastructure projects.
    • Unlike most other U.S. allies, Saudi Arabia did not join anti-Russia sanctions and collaborated with Russia to reduce oil production.
    • As the Kingdom strengthens its ties with China and China plays a role in the Iran reconciliation agreement, it's clear that Beijing has become a significant mediator in West Asia.
  • While Saudi Arabia does not aim to remove American influence from the region, it seeks to establish its own autonomy by leveraging relationships with other powers.

Regional implications:

• Rapprochement between Saudi and Iran:
  • Saudi Arabia's talks to normalize relations with Syria and the Houthis should be seen in the broader context of Saudi-Iran rapprochement.
    • Resolving the Yemen war with the Houthis would lead to a more peaceful Saudi border and allow Tehran to maintain its influence in the Saudi backyard.
  • While such agreements may not drastically alter the region's security dynamics, they could introduce some stability across the Gulf.
• The Israel factor:
  • The road ahead may not be smooth as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could impact cross-Gulf stability.
  • Israeli raid on Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa and the bombing of Syria have resulted in retaliatory attacks from Lebanon and Gaza.
• The U.S factor:
  • Despite its significant military presence in the region, the US is now more of an observer as China and Russia mediate talks between rivals, and Saudi Arabia builds its autonomy.